Every NBA prop line is already adjusted for opponent defense — but books barely adjust for the assigned referee crew. Whistle-heavy crews mean more fouls, more FTs, and tighter pace. We look up the assigned crew, apply per-market multipliers, and surface the spots where the adjusted number beats the market.
Model: market probabilities de-vigged pair-wise, then tilted by the assigned crew’s foul / FTA / pace multipliers vs league average. Tilts are deliberately modest (a heavy crew is worth ~3-5% on a points line, not 20%). EV% is expected return per $1 staked at American odds — positive means the book underpriced the side relative to the ref-adjusted projection. Bet responsibly.