Quick start
Three steps to your first edge
Most users get value in under five minutes. Here's the shortest path.
Under the hood
How we find +EV bets
Every bet has a true win probability and a book-posted price. When the price implies a lower probability than the true market consensus, there's edge. Here's the pipeline.
01
Scan every book
DraftKings: -110 / -110. FanDuel: -108 / -112. BetMGM: -105 / -115. Different books, different prices.
02
Devig each pair
We strip the book's margin from each pair. -110 / -110 implies 52.4% / 52.4% = 104.8%. After devigging: 50% / 50%.
03
Average the truth
Across 7 books the devigged probabilities cluster. That average is our 'market truth' for this line.
04
Compare to the best price
If one book is paying more than market truth implies, there's edge. We publish only picks where edge ≥ 2%.
Your toolkit
Every tool, what it's for
Switch between the three jobs-to-be-done.
Interactive
Odds converter
American, decimal, and implied probability are the same number in different clothes. Try it.
Read-out: A bet at -110 pays 0.909× your stake if it wins, and the market thinks it wins about 52.4% of the time.
Tab or press Enter to recalculate.
Interactive
EV calculator
Plug in a book's price and your estimate of the true win probability. We'll tell you if the bet makes money in the long run.
EV per $1
+$0.050
Edge vs line
+2.6%
Market implies
52.4%
Pays
0.91× stake
Strong +EV. Over 100 bets of $100 at these terms, you'd expect to finish +$500.
Reference
Glossary
Tap any term to expand.
Questions
FAQ
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